**Solana Price Jumps 6%, But Needs a 20% Rally for True Breakout**
Solana (SOL) is showing signs of life, climbing about 6% in the last 24 hours to trade near $167. However, traders and investors shouldn’t get too excited just yet. The real test lies ahead: Solana must gain another 20% and break through the key $202 resistance to confirm a true bullish breakout.
### $202: The Crucial Resistance Level
The $202 price level is more than just another milestone—it’s proven to be a major barrier in Solana’s recent history. This level has stopped rallies in their tracks several times before. If Solana can finally break above it, the door could open for a much larger move to the upside. But if it fails again, the uptrend could stall—or even reverse.
The pressing question now: Who will step in with enough buying power to push Solana through this critical level?
### Short-Term Holders Are Taking Profits
Recent data provides clues about the current slowdown. Short-term holders—those who have held Solana for just one week to a month—are selling earlier than before. Their share of supply has dropped from 14% to 11%, according to HODL Waves, a metric that tracks how tokens are distributed across various holder cohorts.
At the same time, over 730,000 SOL have moved onto exchanges this week. Typically, such exchange inflows suggest large holders, or “whales,” are preparing to sell rather than accumulate. Every time Solana’s price ticks up, this selling pressure kicks in, acting as a recurring roadblock for bigger rallies.
If this pattern continues, it could slow Solana’s ascent before the price even has a chance to challenge $180. Only a decisive push through that level would indicate meaningful conviction from buyers.
### Positive Signs Are Emerging, But No Confirmation Yet
Despite this selling activity, there are some encouraging signals. Money flow indicators suggest buying momentum is slowly returning. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which measures whether capital is entering or leaving an asset, has broken out of its recent downtrend, hinting at improving inflows.
However, the CMF remains below zero, indicating that while large holders might be cautiously returning, substantial buying hasn’t kicked in yet. For a clear bullish signal, the CMF needs to climb above the zero line and stay there.
On the derivatives front, sentiment is indecisive. Long and short positions are nearly equal, showing that traders are not positioning heavily in one direction. There’s no sign of a “short squeeze,” where forced buying from short sellers can rapidly push the price up. This means further gains will likely require genuine spot buying from investors, not just leveraged bets.
### What’s Next for Solana Price?
At the time of writing, Solana is trading close to $167. A move up to $202 represents about a 20% jump—a rally that could validate the current uptrend and trigger a bigger move. On the other hand, continued selling and sluggish buying could see SOL’s rally fail before reaching that threshold. A drop below $150 would likely invalidate the short-term bullish outlook.
**Bottom Line:** For Solana to truly break out, it needs strong, sustained buying that can propel it through $202. Until then, every upward move may face heavy resistance, while dips will continue to test the patience of traders and investors alike.
_In summary, Solana needs a solid 20% rally to confirm the next big move. Until then, caution remains warranted._
https://bitcoinethereumnews.com/finance/solana-price-faces-a-20-test-that-could-make-or-break-its-next-big-rally/
