Match Details
- Fixture: (1) Aryna Sabalenka vs (5) Jessica Pegula
- Date: November 4, 2025
- Tournament: WTA Finals
- Round: Group Stage
- Venue: King Saud University Indoor Arena, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
- Category: Year-end championships
- Surface: Hard (Indoor)
- Prize Money: $15,500,000
- Live Telecast: USA Tennis Channel | UK Sky Sports | Canada TSN
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Preview
Four-time Major champion Aryna Sabalenka will face fifth seed Jessica Pegula in the group stage of the WTA Finals 2025. Sabalenka began her campaign against Jasmine Paolini. The World No. 1 got off to a fast start in the first set, securing a break of serve in the second game. Although Paolini managed to level the score, Sabalenka fought back to break serve again in the eighth game, going up 5-3, and served out the set in the next game.
In the second set, Sabalenka dominated, delivering a convincing 6-3, 6-1 win.
On the other hand, Pegula faced defending champion Coco Gauff in her opening match. Both players struggled to hold serve early on, resulting in five consecutive breaks. Pegula managed to pull ahead at 3-2 and secured another break to clinch the first set.
In the second set, Pegula showed resilience as she rallied from being a break down twice, saved a set point, and forced a tie-break. However, she narrowly lost the tie-break. Pegula regained momentum in the decider, winning five games in a row to seal a 6-3, 6-7 (4), 6-2 victory.
Head-to-Head: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula
Sabalenka currently leads their rivalry 8-3. However, Pegula won their most recent encounter at the Wuhan Open 2025 in three sets.
Odds
(Odds will be added once they’re available)
Prediction
Sabalenka’s win over Paolini marked her 60th victory of the season — a career milestone. During that match, she hit 24 winners against 28 unforced errors and won 66% of her first serve points. Pegula also started strong by defeating Gauff, hitting 23 winners against 33 unforced errors while winning 70% of points on her first serve.
Although Sabalenka has generally held the upper hand in this rivalry, Pegula’s recent win at the Wuhan Open ended Sabalenka’s 20-match winning streak at that tournament. Sabalenka will be motivated to avenge that loss.
Notably, Pegula has never won back-to-back matches against Sabalenka and has lost the following four encounters after each win.
Given their form and past encounters, Sabalenka enters this match as the favorite.
Pick: Aryna Sabalenka to win in straight sets.
Betting Tips
- Tip 1: Aryna Sabalenka to win.
- Tip 2: The match will have at least 18 games.
