**Who’s Responsible for the Government Shutdown? An Analysis by Victor Davis Hanson**
*Editor’s note: This is a lightly edited transcript of today’s video from Daily Signal Senior Contributor Victor Davis Hanson.*
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Hello, this is Victor Davis Hanson for The Daily Signal.
The government has now been shut down for the longest time in our 249-year history of the republic—except for one earlier occasion. So, who’s responsible? How is this going to end? And what’s going to happen next?
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Ostensibly, government shutdowns occur when the party out of power in the House and Senate—or at least those who cannot push through their agenda—resort to leverage by refusing to approve necessary bills. Typically, this happens when a party has lost the presidency and control of Congress. Essentially, they withhold approval by filibustering budgets or other legislation.
In this case, the Republicans do not have 60 votes in the Senate, which would be required to override their blockade against voting on the budget. So why are they doing this? More importantly, why are the Democrats shutting down the government?
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If you look back at the history of shutdowns, there is often a recognizable pattern. Initially, the party causing the shutdown claims things like, “They won’t speak to us,” or “They refuse to negotiate,” or “They’re spending too much, and this is our only recourse.” This message can be somewhat persuasive for a few days.
However, as the shutdown drags on, critical systems begin to fail. Social Security checks are delayed; paychecks don’t arrive; air traffic control slows flights; and the entire system starts to grind to a halt. At that tipping point, people begin to say, “Wait a minute—we had an election. The party that shut down the government lost. Now they’re acting like sore losers, saying, ‘If we’re losing in chess, then we’ll just overturn the whole board.’”
Public opinion then usually turns sharply against those responsible for the shutdown. I believe we have reached that moment now, with the Democrats seeing diminishing returns on their investment in shutting the government down.
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So, why did they do this? The historian Thucydides distinguished between the pretext—the prophasis—and the real cause—the aitia—of conflict.
The stated reason for this shutdown is tied to the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare, which was supposed to reduce healthcare costs for everyone. Currently, about 25 million people receive subsidies through Obamacare, but most Americans still rely on private insurance, Medicare, or Medicaid.
When the ACA proved unaffordable, as many predicted, and when many were drawn into a system they couldn’t afford, the resulting strain had to give way somewhere. The “give” was in costs—in the form of extensive subsidies.
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The Democrats had initially agreed to a time limit on subsidies to keep costs from spiraling—but that limit expired or is about to expire. They signed on to keep the government funded through this point by agreeing not to shut it down.
Now, the official reason for the shutdown is that Republicans refuse to extend those subsidies. The Republicans respond: “Obamacare is not affordable. We told you it wouldn’t work. Why keep going this way? Let’s rewrite the law or find another solution.”
That’s the pretext. There are two other underlying reasons.
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**First**, in the midst of the chaos, Democrats believe this turmoil will hurt the opposing party—specifically, President Donald Trump.
Looking at Trump’s record: he has reduced crime; he claims there is no longer illegal immigration as a major problem; he has focused on removing criminal illegal immigrants, deporting many thousands; he has brokered ceasefires abroad; he may achieve peace in the Middle East; and he has replenished the military’s recruitment shortfalls.
The Democrats worry they have no political counter to these successes. So, they believe that by creating chaos—through shutdowns, protests, possibly violence, and general unrest—they will unsettle the public. The hope is voters will recoil in fear and say, “Make it all go away,” blaming Trump for the upheaval: “Trump did it! Trump did it! Trump did it!”
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**Second**, the Democratic Party is caught in what could be described as a “doom loop.”
On major issues—like defunding the police, open borders, illegal immigration, transgender athlete policies, and foreign policy stances such as pro-Palestinian support—they find themselves on the losing side. Unlike in past eras with charismatic leaders like Bill Clinton or Barack Obama, the current leadership lacks broad appeal nationwide to carry the party through difficult times.
Because they lack strong leadership and sufficient voter support, the party is looking for ways to regain momentum. They believe that by appealing to their base with radical actions—such as a government shutdown—they can demonstrate sticking to their principles.
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However, there is also internal strife.
The Democratic establishment—represented by figures such as Rep. Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer—are considered by many in their party to be “ossified,” “calcified dinosaurs.” Meanwhile, a younger, more radical wing is rising, campaigning on progressive issues that may resonate in certain East Coast liberal cities but lack national appeal.
These new challengers plan to run against incumbents like Schumer in upcoming midterms. While they may win primaries in far-left constituencies, party veterans warn a drift too far left risks a repeat of the 1972 McGovern disaster, potentially costing the Democrats national elections for decades.
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In response, the old guard claims the radicals will lose in general elections and could plunge the party into long-term decline. Meanwhile, they see President Trump as successful and difficult to stop.
The solution? Shut down the government to prove their radical bona fides to the base and try to halt Trump’s momentum.
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**In the final analysis, who loses?** It is the American people.
By shutting down the government, the Democratic Party is effectively saying: “We are Samson. We have our hands on the pillars of the republic. If we go down, we’ll pull the whole thing down with us.”
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*The Daily Signal publishes a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of The Daily Signal.*
https://www.dailysignal.com/2025/10/24/the-democrats-are-stuck-in-a-shutdown-doom-loop/
