Driven by the political exigency of the Bihar elections, India’s leadership has reignited an old fire. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s invocation of Operation Sindoor and threats to change geographies have been followed by his defence minister’s explicit threat regarding the Sir Creek. This is reckless brinkmanship.
### Geographic and Strategic Importance of Sir Creek
The Sir Creek area is a 96-kilometre-long tidal estuary located in the Indus Delta, forming part of the border between Sindh (Pakistan) and India’s Gujarat. It is among Pakistan’s most strategically crucial and ecologically sensitive areas.
Lying at the edge of the Indus River Delta, vital shipping routes, and fishing grounds, Sir Creek holds significant economic and geopolitical importance. Its proximity to the international maritime boundary with India makes it a geopolitically sensitive zone. Control over this region is essential for safeguarding Pakistan’s maritime boundaries and preserving its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), which is abundant in marine resources.
The estuary’s ever-shifting tidal surges and sediment deposition render nautical charts unreliable and navigation challenging. To secure the frontier, naval and marine personnel conduct frequent surveillance and patrols, often using hovercraft and boats, even on foot, through the treacherous terrain.
### Pakistan’s Position on Sir Creek
Pakistan claims rights, in accordance with the Bombay Government Resolution of 1914, to the entire waters surrounding and fed by the creek, says Rear Admiral Foad Baig, a former director general of the Pakistan Maritime Security Agency. This agreement, part of the Surveyor General’s Map, fixed the border on the creek’s eastern bank.
Pakistan’s position is, therefore, rooted in upholding this pre-existing, fixed boundary. It argues that the Thalweg principle—which places the boundary mid-stream—is inapplicable as the creek is a non-navigable estuary and the border was never intended to shift with the channel.
Demonstrating its commitment to a peaceful solution, Pakistan prioritized bilateral resolution. This led to a joint survey in 2007 and an exchange of agreed-upon maps. However, this process was stopped when, following the 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks, India withdrew.
Despite India’s position on Sir Creek, Pakistan’s claim to an extended Continental Shelf 150 nautical miles beyond the EEZ was accepted in March 2015. This granted Pakistan 50,000 sq km of seabed territory, conferring legal control over natural resources in this offshore area, explains Rear Admiral Foad Baig.
### Historical and Military Context
The Sir Creek dispute dates back to the April 1965 Rann of Kutch battle. About two decades ago, Pakistan Navy established its Coastal Command, a strategic initiative designed to enhance amphibious and expeditionary warfare capabilities and ensure naval readiness. Pakistan Marines were raised around the same time and are mandated to defend the creeks area southeast of Karachi.
Pakistan Marines operate in one of the most challenging environments worldwide. The Sir Creek sector is a relentless physical trial—an area of oozing mudflats where the ground shifts with the tides. Tactics here are shaped by these constant transformations.
The marines conduct relentless patrols and surveillance, navigating the difficult terrain to monitor activity and gather intelligence. Their deployment in this fluid and strategically vital border is critical to defend against infiltration, smuggling, and illegal fishing.
### Environmental Challenges and Strategic Advantages
The marines endure exceptionally harsh conditions defined by oppressive humidity, scorching heat, and salt-laden winds. The unstable, waterlogged terrain rules out conventional roads, making small boats and hovercraft the sole lifelines for transport and supply.
Rear Admiral Baig notes that the difficult geography also affords strategic advantages. The marshy land forbids any rapid ingress by the enemy, and the environment offers excellent opportunities for camouflage. He states, “We have better geography on our side, making operations a little more convenient.”
As both navies maintain a forward posture, deployment is no longer limited to periods of hostility. Pakistan Marines remain in a state of perpetual readiness, sustaining a forward presence to enable strategic deployment beyond primary bases.
### Surveillance and Defence Mechanisms
To maintain a high level of vigilance, the Pakistan Navy and Marines employ a robust, integrated surveillance architecture. Through round-the-clock Marine Domain Awareness, the Navy maintains real-time tracking and monitoring of hostile naval activities.
Intelligence flows seamlessly from this system, ensuring tactical and operational flexibility. This is constantly fed to layered defences comprising long-range missiles, air defence systems, unmanned forces, and drone units, all designed to deny the element of surprise to enemy forces.
### Operational Planning and Security Concerns
Pakistan’s operational planning employs innovative tactical approaches that leverage the complex creek terrain to neutralise the adversary’s numerical advantage. Being a porous zone, Sir Creek could be targeted for a false-flag operation, warns Rear Admiral Baig.
Such scenarios might involve fabricated incidents involving fishermen’s boats or aggressive maneuvers targeting Karachi Port. There could also be attempts to infiltrate defences so that saboteurs can strike key harbour infrastructure. These tactics and strategies have been war-gamed repeatedly.
Through plans integrated with the Pakistan Army and Air Force, the Pakistan Marines maintain a qualitative edge. “We have no aggressive designs against anyone, but by the Grace of Allah, we can effectively blunt any mischief in a befitting manner,” says Baig.
### Indian Military Mobilization and Regional Tensions
This vigilant posture is deemed essential as India builds up its military presence in the area, deploying more Border Security Force (BSF) units, naval assets, and special operations (MARCOS) forces along the coast. This Indian mobilisation has been supported by infrastructure upgrades and air bases.
In the face of this buildup, the Pakistan Navy and Marines have maintained a robust and resilient watch.
### Recent Threats and Responses
Responding to recent statements by Indian leaders regarding Karachi and Port Qasim, Pakistan’s Inter-Services Public Relations stated: “The people and Armed Forces of Pakistan have the capability and resolve to take the fight to every nook and corner of the enemy’s territory.”
Several months ago, Lieutenant General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry highlighted this capability by emphasising Pakistan’s potential to strike deep into India, particularly targeting its industrial base in the east. He warned that should India embark on a misadventure, Pakistan could retaliate with precision strikes against counter-value targets in India’s military-industrial complex, including eastern economic hubs like Kolkata, Jamshedpur, and Bhubaneswar—all within missile range from Karachi harbour.
### Growing Apprehensions
These assertions of military capability are framed by deepening apprehensions over Indian intentions. Former ambassador Naghmana Hashmi highlighted a grave warning issued by Pakistan’s former National Security Advisor Nasir Janjua, who stated that India is capable of launching a missile attack on Pakistan.
Hashmi expresses particular concern that Prime Minister Modi, apparently preoccupied with the upcoming Bihar elections, might resort to dangerous actions for domestic political gain. The schedule of the Bihar elections makes such threats immediate. Modi could use a limited military strike to rally nationalist voters, she warns.
Hashmi cautions against dismissing Indian threats as mere electoral rhetoric, noting that Modi and the Indian military leadership could use kinetic force to avenge the “enormous humiliation” they perceive.
### Regional Dynamics and Strategic Partnerships
This aggressive posturing comes at a delicate time for India, as it navigates growing friction with the United States, a key strategic partner. While these bilateral tensions are likely a temporary strain rather than a lasting rupture, they add pressure on New Delhi.
The US is unlikely to abandon its broad strategic plans for the region, which depend heavily on India as a counterweight to China. According to Hashmi, the May 2025 conflict exposed India’s vulnerabilities and weaknesses across various domains.
She adds that the US stance sends a clear message to India to deliver on its side of the strategic partnership and unequivocally side with the West against China and Russia.
### The Path Forward for Pakistan
Hashmi concludes that preventing an escalation like “Sindoor-2” requires matching preparedness. Pakistan must strengthen its defences and regional alliances to deter India’s ambitions and ensure stability amid shifting geopolitical dynamics.
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*The tensions around Sir Creek highlight the fragile nature of regional security, underscoring the importance of diplomacy and measured responses to avoid escalation.*
https://www.thenews.com.pk/tns/detail/1350033-more-saber-rattling
