Solana (SOL) has dropped by 5.3% in the past 24 hours, extending its 30-day losses to over 27%. It stands out as one of the biggest large-cap losers this week, highlighting the intensified bearish pressure. While Solana’s chart structure remains weak, a few on-chain and derivatives signals suggest that the downside may now be limited.
### Crossovers Confirm the Bearish Setup
Solana’s breakdown from the rising wedge pattern confirmed the bearish turn. The situation worsens as two bearish crossovers are forming on the daily chart.
A bearish crossover occurs when a short-term Exponential Moving Average (EMA)—a trend indicator that gives more weight to recent prices—crosses below a longer-term EMA, signaling that sellers have taken control. In Solana’s case, the 50-day EMA is about to cross under the 100-day EMA, while the 20-day EMA is nearing a cross below the 200-day EMA.
These combined crossovers typically trigger further downside before a new price base can form. However, the broader picture suggests that while sellers dominate, signs indicate the worst may be behind us for Solana.
### Derivative Data Suggests a Long Squeeze-Led Drop
Solana’s recent 5.3% daily drop appears more connected to derivatives activity than heavy selling by holders. According to 30-day data from Bybit, most long positions and leverage have already been eliminated. Only $103.9 million in long leverage remains, compared to $1.45 billion in short positions.
This massive imbalance confirms that the correction was driven primarily by a long squeeze rather than an influx of new bearish bets.
There is still hope for longs, however. Because the perpetual futures market is now heavily short-biased, even a small price rebound in Solana could trigger a short squeeze, potentially leading to a relief bounce or even a relief rally.
### Holder Behavior Signals Caution, Not Panic
Meanwhile, the Holder Net Position Change—which tracks the amount of Solana moving into or out of long-term wallets—still signals caution but not panic among investors.
On October 7, the net outflow value stood at -10.52 million SOL; by November 3, it improved significantly to -1.37 million SOL, representing nearly an 87% reduction in net outflows.
This suggests that while short-term traders remain active, long-term holders are not rushing to cash out. This behavior reinforces the idea that the worst of the selling pressure may be behind us, especially as the long squeeze setup nears completion.
### Key Solana Price Levels To Watch
Solana currently trades around $166, just above a strong support zone at $163. If this support fails, the next important level lies near $155. At this point, downside momentum might slow due to the reduced number of long positions left to liquidate.
However, a dip below $155 could open the door for new lows and invalidate the limited-downside outlook.
On the upside, the first resistance level is at $180, followed by $191—both coincide with significant short-liquidation clusters. Surpassing $191 could spark a sharp short squeeze pushing prices toward $200. A stronger breakout might even test the $222 mark, representing the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.
### Conclusion
For now, the path of least resistance remains downward. Yet, with short positions heavily accumulated and most long positions already wiped out, Solana’s next rebound could begin sooner than many traders expect. Keeping an eye on key support and resistance levels will be crucial to anticipate the next move in SOL’s price action.
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