Well, that was inconvenient for the Chicago Cubs. On the cusp of clinching home field advantage for the Wild Card series against the San Diego Padres, the Cubs have been unable to reduce their magic number below four since Friday. After losing 1-0 to the Cincinnati Reds for the second time this weekend and watching the Padres defeat the White Sox in Chicago on Sunday afternoon, that crucial number remains unchanged.
The Cubs’ lack of offense spoiled an outstanding outing from Jameson Taillon, who threw seven strong innings allowing just one run. The run came in the third inning on back-to-back doubles by Matt McLain and Gavin Lux. Interestingly, that was the same way the Reds scored their single run in Thursday’s series opener—two doubles, just from different hitters.
There aren’t many highlights or notable moments to discuss beyond the Cubs’ continued struggles with runners in scoring position (RISP). They left nine men on base and went 0-for-7 with RISP, including Pete Crow-Armstrong striking out to end the game with the tying run on second base. (Incidentally, it was puzzling that Matt Shaw didn’t run for Moises Ballesteros in that situation—unless he was unavailable.) Overall, the Cubs are just 2-for-20 with RISP in this series.
Despite creating plenty of scoring opportunities, the Cubs have failed to capitalize, which is a troubling sign as they head into the postseason. In contrast, Jameson Taillon’s performance was masterful. Given his strong outings this road trip, including the one against the Pirates, he might be considered for a starting role in one of the Wild Card series games.
A note from BCB’s JohnW53 highlights just how exceptional Taillon’s outing was: until this game, no Cubs starter had pitched at least seven innings, allowed one run on five hits or fewer, and taken a loss in over ten years—since Jake Arrieta on May 17, 2015, against the Pirates. In fact, this kind of performance had only happened three other times this century, by Carlos Zambrano (2003), Matt Clement (2004), and Ted Lilly (2009). Historically, Cubs starters have won 329 such games, lost 54, and had 46 no-decisions.
Regarding the Cubs’ first four-game losing streak of 2025, John also notes that with today’s loss, 1906 remains the only Cubs season without a four-game losing streak. The game today, the Cubs’ 156th of the year, marks the latest point in a season for their first four-game skid. For context, in 1912 the first four-game losing streak happened in game 150 (October 1), while in 1910 and 1934, it occurred earlier, in games 138 and 144 respectively.
On the road, the Cubs finished 42-39, their eighth-best full-season road record since 2000. Their best road records include 48-33 in 2015, 46-34-1 in 2016, 44-36 in 2004, and 44-37 in 2003, 2017, and 2018. The Cubs now cannot clinch home field advantage until Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Padres open a three-game series against the Brewers in San Diego on Monday. Although the Brewers lost Sunday, they clinched the NL Central title with the Cubs’ loss. The Reds, with their win and the Mets’ loss on Sunday, are tied with the Mets for the final Wild Card spot and hold the tiebreaker, making the Mets quite desperate when they visit Wrigley Field on Tuesday.
Before previewing Tuesday’s matchup, here’s a story about a recent team that may offer some perspective. You probably recall it, but it’s worth a quick refresher.
The 2022 Phillies, after defeating the Marlins on September 14 to reach 80-62, seemed locked into a Wild Card spot with 20 games left. However, they then lost five straight games, won three, then suffered another five straight losses—including getting swept by a middling Cubs team at Wrigley Field. Phillies fans were understandably upset. The Phillies eventually recovered, winning four of their last five games, ultimately making the postseason despite losing to the Astros on the second-to-last day.
The crux: after 80-62, the Phillies went 7-13 down the stretch—the Cubs, by contrast, went 13-6 during that span. But then in the postseason, the Phillies caught fire. They scored six runs in the ninth inning of their Wild Card series opener against the Cardinals, winning that series. They took the division series from the Braves 3-1, swept the Padres 4-1 in the NLCS, and reached the World Series, where they ultimately lost to the Astros. That’s a 9-2 record from the end of the regular season through the World Series start.
Am I saying the Cubs are going to do the same? No. But they certainly could. Like the Phillies, the Cubs are a very good team with some recent struggles. Despite the sweep in Cincinnati, this Cubs team plays well at Wrigley Field, where they return this week. If they can go 4-2 over six games against the Mets and Cardinals, they’ll play at least two postseason games at home.
Does that make you feel better? Maybe not completely. This season has had its ups and downs, with solid runs and frustrating offensive droughts. But I believe there’s more hitting left in this squad, and they should start showing it this week.
Looking ahead, the Cubs open their final homestand of the 2025 regular season with a three-game series against the Mets. Cade Horton will start the series opener Tuesday evening, with New York sending left-hander (uh-oh) David Peterson to the mound. First pitch Tuesday is at 6:40 p.m. CT, with TV coverage on Marquee Sports Network (and TBS outside the Cubs and Mets market areas).
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